AGP Executive Report

Markets & Rates: U.S. stocks slid as the 10-year Treasury yield jumped back near 5.11% after a strong economy report stoked fresh inflation worries, with Fed officials signaling more policy moves may be needed. Energy Policy: The White House is weighing a 90-day U.S. diesel export ban amid record fuel prices and Iran-war fallout, a move that’s drawing sharp debate from Republicans and the oil industry. Regional Growth Watch: Europe’s euro zone showed a surprise September PMI rebound to 53.1, while Vietnam’s growth forecasts were lifted by the ADB to 7.8% for 2026. Trade & Investment: Malaysia is courting Chinese tech and AI/EV investment, while Togo and Ghana firms meet in Accra to build cross-border partnerships under AfCFTA. Business Operations: New Jersey pushes solar panel recycling and critical-mineral recovery, and a Minnesota pop-up event brought in-person business filings to St. Cloud. Local Economy: North Carolina unveiled a long-term recovery plan for Western NC after Hurricane Helene.

Taiwan Trade: Taiwan’s monthly export orders topped US$100bn for the first time in August, powered by AI and semiconductor demand, with officials expecting the run-rate to stay near US$100bn into year-end. Macro Outlook: The OECD projects global growth at 2.9% in 2026 and warns weather and bond turmoil could weigh on activity. IMF Watch: Sri Lanka’s economy stayed resilient under its IMF programme, but the Fund flagged downside risks from Middle East uncertainty, trade policy shifts and El Niño, with inflation rising to 8% in August. Europe PMI: The euro zone surprised with a September business activity upturn, while the UK saw services growth cool and price pressures build ahead of the next budget. AI & Data Deals: Progress Software completed its acquisition of Domo’s AI and data platform business, aiming to strengthen trusted AI foundations; Digital Realty also found APAC AI investment is accelerating, though markets differ in turning spend into value. Regional Risk: ADB warned escalating conflict and a strong El Niño could slow developing Asia-Pacific growth and lift energy and food volatility. Business & Policy: Singapore’s attempt to trade US stocks during Asia hours via SDRs is off to a slow start, highlighting how tough it is to win liquidity.

Diesel Export Ban Debate: Trump backed a potential U.S. diesel export ban as prices hit record highs, with Treasury weighing whether a full or partial ban is feasible—energy groups warn it could backfire by tightening global supplies. Markets & AI Mood: Stocks climbed as oil slid and AI optimism returned, helped by Meta’s AI agent “Muse,” while Europe tracked a two-week high as investors watched UN diplomacy on conflicts. MSME Financing Push: Malaysia’s PEMUDAH task force is studying faster payments via contract/invoice financing, alternative credit checks, and expanded guarantees to improve MSME access to funding. Banking Deal Cleared: The Fed approved BancFirst’s acquisition and merger with Spirit BankCorp, allowing new branches—another sign of consolidation in regional banking. AI Infrastructure M&A: Progress Software completed its acquisition of Domo’s AI/data platform business to strengthen “context and control” for trusted, governed AI and agentic deployments. Local Business Support: Norfolk’s “Bon Appetit” program returns with an eight-week course and $7,500 grants to expand city catering vendor capacity. Policy & Governance: New Zealand’s National Events Strategy aims to coordinate long-term event planning after an independent review found strengths without a joined-up approach. Trade & Compliance: China added two fentanyl-precursor chemicals to export controls for the U.S., Mexico and Canada, expanding restrictions ahead of Xi-Trump talks. Corporate Scrutiny: Philippines Palace said no one is above the law after SEC records showed VP Sara Duterte stayed a director/shareholder in a private firm after taking office.

Corporate Governance: In the Philippines, an SEC witness told the Senate impeachment court that Vice President Sara Duterte should have divested from business interests after taking office, citing constitutional limits on top officials. FX & Markets: Nigeria’s naira edged up 0.11% to about ₦1,329.80 per $1 at the official market as reserves topped $54.72bn; traders also saw slower interbank FX activity. Energy & Costs: Fuel price pressure remains a live business risk, with consultations continuing on an insurance-style first-loss fund in Ukraine that would be financed by a VAT hike—small firms are pushing back. Infrastructure Impact: Another delay to Singapore’s North-South Corridor is raising fresh concerns about prolonged disruption for residents and local businesses. Dealmaking & Finance: Axa XL promoted Debbie Durkan to lead private equity and business development for UK and Lloyd’s; in India, Varmora Granito’s IPO is set to turn it net cash and fund a planned ₹100 crore faucet acquisition. Trade & Supply Chains: A U.S. lithium recycler is eyeing Vietnam’s battery recycling market as EV adoption accelerates; China and the U.S. held candid economic and trade talks, including AI-related discussions. Business Climate: Malaysia is pushing a more market-driven R&D funding model to move from “Made in Malaysia” to “Made by Malaysia,” while Singapore firms are turning to international SEO/GEO as costs rise faster than revenue.

AI-led Markets: Nasdaq hit a record close as AI chip optimism lifted tech shares; AMD briefly crossed $1T market value, with Intel and Arm also surging. Rates & Business Planning: A Fed rate hike is giving owners clearer assumptions for financing and investment timing, with guidance to update budgets rather than panic. Energy Costs & Politics: Diesel prices jumped to a record average, squeezing logistics and farmers as Iran tensions keep pressure on fuel and lawmakers debate support. Corporate Moves & Listings: newcleo closed its business combination and will start trading on Nasdaq as “NWCL” on Sept. 22; Toro set an Oct. 1 record date for its LPG carrier spin-off. Regional Trade Rules: The Philippines advanced ASEAN’s digital economy framework to standardize AI, data protection, e-commerce and payments for cross-border business. Deal/Geopolitics Watch: EU sources say sanctions on Russian businessmen Usmanov and Fridman could be lifted unless countries object. Local Economy Pulse: North Carolina’s Main Street program reported $514m in investment, 318 new businesses and nearly 2,500 jobs in downtowns.

Corporate Governance Watch (Philippines): SEC records show Vice President Sara Duterte listed herself as an incorporator/stockholder of Gencorp Industries in SALNs, but SEC director Gerardo del Rosario says she doesn’t appear in Gencorp’s filings from 2020-2025, raising conflict-of-interest questions as the impeachment court weighs unexplained wealth. ASEAN Integration (Trade & Industry): Malaysia’s investment chief says ASEAN’s next integration push can borrow from Malaysia’s NIMP 2030, stressing industrial upgrading, tech adoption and inclusive growth as FDI rises. Banking & Payments (Bangladesh/India): Standard Chartered plans to wind down Bangladesh retail banking, with BRAC Bank and City Bank in early talks to take over; in India, UPI MDR GST rules could raise compliance and cost burdens for thin-margin merchants. Energy & Inflation (Qatar/Bangladesh/US): Qatar says it will double LNG capacity to 145m tons by 2030 despite LNG damage; Bangladesh’s diesel price hike may re-ignite inflation pressures; US diesel export bans could backfire by tightening supplies and lifting pump prices. Markets & Macro: Oil’s slide lifts European stocks and pulls bond yields lower; IMF warns stubborn inflation, higher debt costs and AI financing risks could keep global growth near ~3%. Business Tech & Cyber: KB Kookmin and SAP Korea expand embedded “invisible banking” for corporate finance; Australia’s regulator warns firms to act on AI-driven cyber threats.

Philippines Impeachment Watch: House prosecutors will resume the Sara Duterte impeachment case Monday, moving from SALNs to corporate and procurement records, with SEC and Civil Service witnesses set to testify on how her declared business interests were filed and documented. ASEAN Trade Push: ASEAN economic ministers and South Korea called for more practical trade cooperation as geopolitical tensions and unilateral actions raise costs for firms, especially SMEs. Qatar Growth Plan: Qatar reaffirmed expansion plans at the UN General Assembly, highlighting non-hydrocarbon growth, debt reduction and a push to double LNG capacity by 2030. Mideast Supply-Chain Strain: Iran’s economy is still being squeezed by the U.S. blockade as land-route diversions trigger long customs delays and gridlocked borders, hitting food and essentials. AI Power Demand: The IEA says electricity use from AI data centers could more than double by 2030, turning power supply into a key business battleground. Canada Economic Bill: Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government plans major legislation to speed project approvals and update labour rules to boost competitiveness. Local Disruptions: Fires in Rockport and Williamsburg displaced families and injured firefighters, while Nepal’s flood damage threatens hydropower exports even as revenue rises.

IMF & AI Policy: An IMF note says AI could lift Europe’s productivity by ~1% over five years, but risks widening inequality, straining power grids and boosting reliance on foreign tech—urging deeper EU integration to spread benefits. US–China Trade Shock: Trump’s summit talks with Xi are set to focus on tariffs, AI controls and rare-earth supply curbs, with leverage tactics raising uncertainty for global supply chains. Fed & US Growth Doubt: A pushback against “steady growth” forecasts highlights a squeeze from slowing consumer spending and renewed rate pressure, keeping markets jittery. Pakistan Protests Risk: Pakistan’s finance minister warns long marches, sit-ins and strikes could cost the economy about Rs120bn a day, hitting services, industry and revenues. Sudan Currency Crisis: Sudan’s pound has swung wildly as the war deepens FX shortages, widening the gap between official and parallel rates. Gulf Market Hit: Saudi and Qatar stocks fell after Houthi claims of attacks on Riyadh, adding risk premium to the region. Trade & Industry Moves: Qatar launched an e-commerce licence for approved activities via company websites; China unveiled a 2026-30 plan to scale electronic information manufacturing for AI. Energy Finance: IFC is considering up to $200m for a 700MW gas plant in Jordan’s Mafraq, aiming to strengthen grid reliability.

Monetary Policy & Housing: The Fed’s first rate hike in three years pushed the 30-year mortgage rate to just under 7%, reviving affordability pressure for households. Markets & Energy: Wall Street ended a mixed week as oil stayed above $100 and the Nasdaq held up on a semiconductor rally. Tokenized Stocks Go Mainstream: Coinbase’s tokenized equities on Base topped $1B in DEX trading volume in about a month, as non-US traders pour into 24/7 on-chain markets. Regulation Watch: T. Rowe Price’s digital-assets chief says tokenized shares need “instant” liquidity across on-chain and legacy formats, warning delays could undermine the promise of tokenized trading. Business Climate Turnaround: QNB says Spain has transformed from crisis casualty to growth leader, driven by export diversification, labor-market revival, and supportive investment. SME Push in Asia: Moldova’s PM met regional entrepreneurs on tax and export barriers; Malaysia’s domestic trade minister urged stronger MSME and trader empowerment to close the gap between growth and grassroots conditions. Local Deals & Jobs: Ondo State launched a solar plan to cut energy costs for 1,000 small businesses, while the UK is weighing higher business-rates relief thresholds for small firms. Corporate & Legal: A class action was filed against PROCEPT BioRobotics over alleged surprise sales underperformance tied to inventory and discounting.

AI & Semiconductors: Meta is buying Stilla.ai to plug AI agents into its Meta Business Agent, aiming to monetize AI beyond ads via in-app commerce. Intel’s Terafab push could also expand its AI foundry customer base and improve chip-manufacturing economics. Energy & Policy: Eurozone finance ministers in Dublin weigh an oil-and-gas windfall tax as prices stay elevated; Moldova’s energy minister rejects using strategic gas security stocks to cut prices. Markets & Macro: Global stocks and bonds dipped as central banks stay in focus; UN cut growth forecasts for the CIS and Georgia, while Georgia’s stock market remains small versus the economy. Business & Deals: Apollo Pipes moves into ceramic tiles by acquiring a controlling stake in Mazzini Tiles. Regional Economy: Bahrain and the EU discuss stronger economic cooperation; Shenzhen airport posts record cargo and APEC passenger growth. Local Impact: Michigan’s economic development agency plans layoffs amid funding pressure. Trade & Security: US warns allies of weapons delivery delays due to depleted stocks from the Iran war.

Tokenized stocks: The SEC cleared a path for tokenized US stock trading via a five-year innovation exemption, with secondary trading only and holders set to keep the same rights as traditional shareholders. Markets: U.S. stocks closed the week mixed after the Fed’s first rate hike in three years, while Canada’s S&P/TSX edged lower and Europe also leaned down amid central-bank focus. Defense supply strain: The U.S. warned allies of major weapons delivery delays—up to five years—as munitions stocks were depleted in the Iran war. Nigeria investment push: President Tinubu met France’s Bolloré to expand investment in Nigeria’s film, entertainment, fibre optics and digital economy. SME growth & payments: Access Bank Ghana and Visa launched “Visa Accept” to let nano and small merchants take digital payments via smartphones, aiming to pull firms into the formal economy. Local business resilience: Glasgow Airport won an economic impact award; Zimbabwe police made a breakthrough in a Bulawayo businessman murder probe; and a Manitoba business reported a theft wave after three UTVs were stolen.

AI & Telecom Security: Beacon Software bought Haize Labs to build an AI reliability “operating system” for real-world deployment, while Mavenir launched NetAIShield to fight fraud using multi-layer AI across networks and live calls. Energy & Markets: Oil slipped for a third day as Saudi supply worries eased, even as Middle East tensions simmer; US stocks rebounded on lower oil and easing bond pressure, while Asian shares tracked the tech-led mood. Corporate & Geopolitics: Russia moved to seize Nestlé’s assets, raising fresh risks for foreign firms operating in the country. Business Policy & Costs: UK bookshops and theatres urged business rates relief ahead of the autumn budget, warning closures if bills stay high. Regional Economy Updates: Georgia reported 6.9% GDP growth in Q2; Serbia’s Raiffeisen lifted its growth forecast to 3.3%; Sabah tourism surged on China arrivals and added direct flights. Crypto Demand Signals: Corporate treasuries bought only 5,900 bitcoin in three months, with demand still soft despite ETF inflows. Work & Skills: Ukraine’s Red Cross extended applications for social entrepreneurship and veteran business schools, with grants up to EUR 3,000.

Markets Rally: U.S. stocks surged to their best day in six weeks as oil prices slipped and bond-market pressure eased after the Fed’s latest move, lifting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Energy & Costs: Analysts warned that while $100 oil is less scary than in past decades, higher gas and diesel prices still hit households and business shipping costs. Trade & Tariffs: CaptiveAire’s president said tariffs are crushing growth by adding roughly $15m a year in costs, especially on imported components, with smaller firms most exposed. Tax Modernization: Togo launched an online filing and payment platform for its Single Business Tax, aiming to cut paperwork, errors, and compliance delays for micro and small firms. Corporate Moves: NOMAD Power Solutions filed expanded merger disclosures; Gentherm and Modine advanced details on a proposed combination; and newcleo shareholders approved a business combination ahead of Nasdaq trading. Legal & Enforcement: An FTC settlement orders Amway and affiliates to pay $225m over unfair recruiting tactics, while a Kansas businessman was sentenced for selling controlled aviation tech to Russia. Local Business Impact: Namibia’s vehicle market stayed robust, and several communities faced business disruption—from road closures to flood damage.

Central Banks & Rates: The Bank of England faces a tough call today as it weighs holding rates and bond-selling changes against weak labour-market signals and household strain. FX & Trade Costs: Convera warns of a widening “volatility gap” where faster cross-border payments don’t fix currency-risk management, squeezing importer/exporter margins. Oil & Supply: Oil prices extend losses as Saudi offers extra crude cargoes via Oman, easing disruption fears. UK Business Policy: Dayton, Ohio approves a New Community Authority that lets participating businesses add up to a 5% surcharge to fund local development projects. India Payments: Bengaluru merchants push back on a proposed UPI Merchant Discount Rate above Rs 2,000, warning it could hit already-thin margins. Semiconductors & Water: Gradiant lands $300m in US semiconductor contracts focused on water reuse and zero-liquid-discharge systems to remove water constraints on AI chip fabs. Aviation & Connectivity: Kuala Lumpur tops OAG’s Megahubs 2026 connectivity rankings in Asia, highlighting low-cost carrier-driven growth. E-Commerce Regulation: Qatar launches an online e-commerce licence to simplify starting and operating digital businesses. Corporate Governance Tech: LRN rolls out “Catalyst Policy” to manage compliance policies across geographies as AI reshapes governance needs.

Fed Rate Shock: The US Federal Reserve lifted its benchmark rate for the first time in three years, with new chief Kevin Warsh signaling more hikes ahead as inflation stays “elevated,” rattling stocks and bond markets. Digital Identity Push: Westpac will issue digital ID credentials for businesses via the Govt.nz app wallet, aiming to speed up account verification and cut fraud risk. Renewables Tax Cut: Bangladesh’s NBR cut solar equipment import tax to 1% for 180 days to accelerate renewable power rollout. Energy Project Watch: A 500MW battery storage plan in Livingston Parish is advancing fast, tied to an unnamed commercial load of 330–360MW. Trade & Sanctions: The US extended export restrictions blocking Russian airlines Aeroflot, Utair and Azur Air from US-linked parts and maintenance. Business Enablement: Qatar’s MoCI launched an e-commerce licence for 194 activities and upgraded its business portal and “Qatar Business Map” to streamline online setup. Corporate Moves: Gladstone Investment backed Global GRAB’s acquisition of Barrier1 Systems, expanding perimeter security products. Local Economy: A new dessert food truck in Boone highlights how small operators keep diversifying even in tight conditions. Fraud Crackdown: Georgia AG secured a plea and sentencing in a $158k business email compromise case, underscoring rising cyber-enabled scams.

Fed Rate Watch: Asian markets wobbled as investors braced for the Federal Reserve’s expected move, with Treasury yields above 5% and oil holding near $100+ adding pressure. Energy Costs & Power Reliability: Businesses in the Visayas Grid warned that outages and higher electricity bills are hitting productivity and jobs, while South Africa faces a looming “gas cliff” that could stall industrial investment. Policy & Subsidies: Malaysia’s government signaled targeted help for households after electricity bill increases, with a focus on users above the 600 kWh threshold. Trade & Investment Strategy: Canada’s PM Mark Carney pitched the country as an investment haven, aiming for CAN$1tn over five years, even as US trade tensions persist. Regional Connectivity: Türkiye’s officials pushed the Middle Corridor as an economic development belt, stressing digital customs and value-chain building. Tech & Regulation: Hong Kong unveiled a five-year plan to boost innovation spending, while the EU proposed tighter social media rules for kids under 13. Corporate & Local Business: Enfield Council won an eviction order against a director accused of using allotment land for commercial storage, and Westbourne traders reported losses from roadworks disrupting trade. Aviation Premium Shift: Qantas plans lie-flat business suites on a narrowbody A321XLR subfleet, signaling premium demand for longer-range jets.