AGP Executive Report

Markets & Rates: Stocks rebounded after a tech-led selloff as the dollar hit a one-year peak, with investors still pricing at least one Fed hike and watching chip earnings like Micron. Oil & Geopolitics: Oil briefly slipped below $70 as Strait of Hormuz traffic improved, though Pacific finance ministers warned small island states shouldn’t assume the Iran-U.S. deal ends volatility. AI & Consumer Trust: A new report says 52% of consumers will pay more for brands that clearly explain how AI uses their data, with nearly half taking spending actions over data concerns. Green Power for Corporates: Malaysia’s CRESS scheme has attracted 11 developers, including data centres, targeting direct green electricity supply to large users. Regional Trade & Investment: The SCO Investment Business Forum in Kyrgyzstan pushed digital economy and green transition themes, while Nigeria’s APM Terminals Apapa highlighted port digitisation to boost exports. Corporate Compliance Deadlines: UAE SMEs and free zone firms are rushing to meet the July 31 corporate tax registration penalty-waiver rules. Local Business Pressure: India’s stainless steel MSMEs urged a return to quality control after a surge in low-priced Chinese imports. Community & Business: Chico businesses raised funds for victims’ families after a deadly library shooting.

Markets & Energy: Wall Street climbed as bond yields eased and oil slid, with airlines gaining on cheaper fuel expectations after crude fell toward pre-Iran-war levels. UK Politics & Business: Business leaders warned that a Burnham Brexit reset could “drag on growth,” urging Labour not to concede more EU ground. Tech & Stocks: A tech selloff tied to AI spending worries showed signs of stabilising, while investors stayed cautious amid rate concerns. Aviation Supply Chain: IATA flagged four priorities to fix persistent aerospace bottlenecks, from better supply visibility and aftermarket access to data/AI and workforce capacity. SMEs & Policy: Bangladesh’s SME Foundation pushed for a unified tax regime, saying incentives aren’t reaching firms; in the US, home medical suppliers warned Medicare’s remote-item delivery model could squeeze small operators. Regional Growth: Malaysia reported net FDI up 41.2% in 2025, while Curaçao’s economy grew 5.1% and improved its budget surplus and debt ratio, driven by tourism. Business Operations: Palmtech launched a 24/7 online scheduler for home inspectors, and McKesson is building a new distribution facility in Moore.

Markets & Tech Selloff: Global equities wobbled after a sharp tech-led drop, with chipmakers dragging sentiment and investors questioning whether AI spending will pay off. Semiconductors in Focus: Tokyo stocks slipped on tech weakness after big US semiconductor declines, while Korea’s KOSPI rebounded as bargain hunters returned. AI & Business Risk: Cloudflare CEO Matthew Prince warned that AI agents could tilt advantages toward large firms, squeezing small businesses. Digital Economy Policy: Türkiye completed steps to join an OTS digital economy partnership, aiming to cut barriers for e-commerce and cross-border data services. FX Watch: Malaysia’s ringgit edged lower on expectations of higher US rates, though officials cite solid domestic growth and moderate inflation. Trade & Tariffs: India and the US kicked off fresh talks to try to beat a 10% US import tariff deadline. Local Economy & Jobs: A task force was formed to tackle Nepal-to-India tea export problems after new standards disrupted production. Community & Culture: Subic Bay’s weeklong Arbor Day blends forest conservation with local crafts and community participation.

Global Markets: Big Tech-led selloff dragged stocks lower as rate-hike worries cooled AI enthusiasm, with the S&P 500 down 1% and the Nasdaq down 1.5%, while Micron slid 11%. Space & Tech IPOs: SpaceX shares kept falling after its IPO frenzy, slipping below the debut price as investors reassessed volatility and early valuation swings. Banking & Deals: Standard Chartered is exploring a sale of its Bahrain wealth and retail banking unit, signaling a broader shift toward higher-return wholesale banking. Corporate Moves: Lumine agreed to buy Synamedia’s video network business (Quortex products), expanding its media supply-chain footprint. Trade & Industry: Malaysia highlighted deep UAE ties in petroleum, petrochemicals and logistics, while also stressing that foreign investors weigh fundamentals more than election speculation. Policy & Business Climate: Britain’s Andy Burnham outlined “business-friendly socialism” ideas that could mean higher state spending, even as he tried to reassure investors on fiscal rules. Local Economy & Inclusion: A Kenya seminar promoted the China International Import Expo to help Kenyan firms export more to China. Tourism Boost: St Vincent and the Grenadines launched the “Go Grenadines” initiative to drive domestic and regional travel.

Markets & Rates: Korea’s KOSPI slid about 4.3% late Tuesday morning as chip and auto shares sank, while investors weighed US-Iran negotiation headlines and tech weakness. Trade Policy: South Korea reached a broad consensus with the EU on a steel quota plan that could cut tariff-free volumes sharply from July 1, with Seoul warning it may consider retaliation. Corporate Health: Bank of Korea data showed Q1 corporate sales and profitability improving, led by semiconductors and transportation, alongside a modest easing in debt pressure. Business Credit Stress (Australia): Equifax’s pulse pointed to rising strain among smaller firms, with insolvencies up for the year while SME asset finance demand fell in multiple states. SME Cashflow (Korea): A survey found most Homeplus suppliers are facing severe settlement delays, with unpaid invoices overdue for over 60 days. Energy & Geopolitics: Malaysia’s transport minister said long-term oil and fuel supply deals can stabilize logistics, and noted sanctions relief for Iranian crude could ease global prices. AI for Operations: Mavenir unveiled an agentic service assurance framework aimed at automating network fault handling across domains. UK Politics & Economy: Analysis argues Brexit failed to deliver promised economic gains, citing lower-than-projected UK growth. Local Business & Resilience: US SBA approved blizzard relief loans for island small businesses in Massachusetts. SME Growth Tools: Alibaba.com president highlighted “agentic” AI as a new way for SMEs to act across priorities without losing momentum.

Japan–India Business Push: Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi’s early-July visit to Assam will bring 50+ executives, with chips, supply-chain diversification and industrial investment at the center of the India-Japan summit. Geopolitics & Markets: U.S.-Iran talks and a Strait of Hormuz reopening plan are easing oil fears and supporting risk sentiment, while UK politics adds volatility as Keir Starmer steps down. AI ROI Debate: A new MIT-based claim says 95% of corporate AI projects show no measurable financial return, raising pressure on boards to prove value. Trade & Sanctions: China expands export controls on U.S. firms and targets rare-earth producers, keeping supply-chain risk high for tech and defense. SME Digital Momentum (Africa): South Africa’s SMEs show strong online payments and optimism, with 85% using business cards—small signals of growing commercial maturity. Local Economy Watch: Collingwood’s building activity fell sharply in 2025, while Nigeria’s market rebounded with a banking-led rally adding N1.52tn in value. Energy & Safety: Qatar’s gas export terminal explosion injured dozens, while Tanzania seeks deeper economic ties with Russia in mining, energy and agriculture.

Geopolitics & Energy: Iran’s talks with the US in Switzerland sparked a calmer mood in markets, easing oil fears, but Qatar’s Ras Laffan gas export terminal still suffered a major explosion that injured 54 and left 18 missing—raising near-term energy supply risk. Trade & Diplomacy: Malaysia is pushing a fast-track free trade deal with Bangladesh, with cooperation also targeting semiconductors, AI, energy and halal; India’s Jaishankar is set for Mongolia and South Korea talks on trade, AI and defence. Export Controls: China added 10 US entities to its export control list, tightening rules on dual-use goods and suspending shipments; it also targeted two US rare-earth firms, underlining how tech supply chains are becoming a policy battleground. Markets: Asian shares leaned higher on improved Iran-talk sentiment, while China stocks rose but Hong Kong fell on rate worries and upcoming lock-up share releases. Business & Tech: AirAsia X said it will gradually lower fares as jet fuel prices fall and is exploring new routes to Russia and Turkmenistan if demand and visa access improve. AI & Investing: Investors are debating whether the AI data-centre boom will last, with some AI chip stocks trading at low P/E levels amid order-cancellation concerns. UK Economy: A decade after Brexit, UK small firms and surveys point to higher red tape and cost pressure, even as many businesses still plan to grow.

Markets & Rates: Philippine local equities slid as US-Iran peace talks were delayed and investors brace for more BSP tightening after the overnight reverse repo rate hit 4.75%. Investing Access: BPI Wealth is rolling out peso-denominated share classes for global AI/tech funds, letting retail investors start with ₱1,000 without buying dollars. Energy Policy: The IMF warned Nigeria’s below-cost electricity tariffs are creating implicit subsidies and swelling fiscal risks as power-sector arrears reached about three-quarters of GDP by end-2025. Corporate & Trade: Tata Motors booked 3,400+ electric commercial vehicle orders, signaling EVs moving from pilots to routine logistics and passenger use. Bullion Watch: Gold and silver outlook next week hinges on US-Iran talks, crude oil moves, and Strait of Hormuz supply risk. Local Business Climate: RBI revised India’s Lead Bank Scheme to boost district-level credit planning and financial inclusion. Africa Trade Push: Guinea suspended raw gold exports to force refining at home, while Namibia and Tanzania urged deeper industrialisation and intra-African trade. SME Productivity: New Zealand small-business productivity lagged peers, with Hawke’s Bay manufacturing leading. UK Brexit Fallout: Ten years after Brexit, UK SMEs report rising trade barriers and longer lead times with EU partners.

Middle East Diplomacy & Energy: US and Iran negotiators head to Switzerland to flesh out an interim ceasefire deal, after Iran said it closed the Strait of Hormuz again; the talks aim to unfreeze billions in Iranian assets, while Trump warns of possible tolls if no final deal lands in 60 days. Central Banking & Markets: A new, quieter Fed approach could boost volatility, with analysts warning that clearer signaling may mean sharper swings in stocks and bonds. Geopolitics, Trade & Energy Security: Malaysia’s PM Anwar Ibrahim’s fast trip via Tashkent, Kazan and Ashgabat spotlights energy and strategic partnerships, including Petronas’ expanded Turkmenistan role and Russia ties. Commodities & Supply Chains: Goldman Sachs flags aluminium tightness into 2027 as Middle East outages linger, even as Indonesia-China supply growth may swing the market back toward surplus. Small Business Pressure: South Korea’s minimum wage jump is hitting micro firms hard, pushing owners to cut hiring and intensify labor. Policy Watch (India): India’s finance panel will examine “evolving economic conditions” amid global uncertainty, with RBI projecting growth slowing to 6.6% as West Asia risks raise fuel and fertiliser costs. Local Economy & Resilience: Bougainville’s veterans affairs department launches a corporate plan to strengthen support and keep veterans central to nation-building. Circular Economy Regulation: SMART will join international talks on used textiles, as rules on what counts as waste could reshape reuse markets.

US-Iran Deal Watch: Trump said he signed an interim Iran peace deal to avoid “economic catastrophe,” a move that eased oil prices and lifted US stocks—yet it may also weaken Washington’s leverage as talks head to Switzerland. Fed and Markets: AP reports Fed chair Kevin Warsh’s push for clearer signaling could mean more violent swings in stocks and bonds, with potential knock-on effects for consumers and businesses. Gulf Aviation Recovery: Flight data shows Gulf airlines are back to roughly 82% of pre-war flight levels, with major carriers near or above 90% as airspace reopens. Nigeria Equities Slide: Nigeria’s stock market shed about 3.6% this week, wiping roughly N5.7tn and deepening June losses. Oman IPO Pressure: Muscat’s index fell for a third week as investors sold winners to fund participation in the OMIFCO IPO. Ghana 24-Hour Economy Reality Check: A Ghana logistics “visibility gap” after 6pm risks undermining the 24-hour push, especially for SMEs without real-time tracking. Malaysia Industrial Push: MKS opened a Penang factory for wafer-fab equipment, backing Malaysia’s shift toward semiconductors and higher-value manufacturing. Trade and Exports: Guimaras mangoes shipped a first 100kg test batch to Spain, aiming to open EU export pathways for Philippine farmers and SMEs.

Energy & Diplomacy: Malaysia’s PM Anwar Ibrahim backed Petronas’ 30-year Turkmenistan push, citing new deals that expand upstream access in offshore Blocks 19 and 20 plus 2D seismic work—framed as proof of Malaysia’s stability and international confidence. Local Business Pressure: In Oxfordshire, an MP urged reform to the business rates system as high street costs bite, amid controversial plans to reshape parking and pedestrian areas in Wantage Market Place. IT Stocks & Guidance: Indian IT sentiment wobbled after Accenture’s FY26 guidance cut, with analysts flagging potential slowdown risk and leaning toward Infosys as a relative pick. AI & Policy: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told AP society must adapt to AI with “new social norms,” while the US export ban on Anthropic’s latest models adds to the compliance-and-access debate. Middle East Sanctions Risk: Reuters reports Iran’s Revolutionary Guards could benefit from any sanctions relief tied to a war-ending deal—raising a sanctions-compliance dilemma for Western talks. Fuel Market Watch: Nigeria saw petrol imports jump 59.5% in May even as Dangote kept PMS output for domestic use, highlighting ongoing supply balancing. Construction Supply: Barbados approved licences for five firms to import cement, targeting 390,000 tonnes to ease construction shortages.

Competition & Data Sharing: Malaysia’s competition watchdog MyCC and the national statistics office DOSM signed an MoU to boost data sharing, economic analysis and capacity building, aiming for a more data-centric approach to competition enforcement. Corporate Moves: TWL Holdings’ unit bought a 45% stake in property investor Fairise Odyssey for RM42m, funded internally, to support growth in its property and construction portfolio. Market Watch: Ajinomoto (Malaysia) shares will be suspended on June 22 pending a material announcement, while investors also digest broader risk signals. Global Trade & Security: India’s NIXI launched four new internet platforms, including an AI-powered WHOIS screening tool, to strengthen domain security and transparency; India and Uzbekistan also agreed to tackle non-tariff barriers and double bilateral trade in three years. Energy & Shipping: The Strait of Hormuz is seeing limited reopening after a US-Iran deal, but de-mining and safety concerns keep most shipping on hold. Business & Policy: Kenya unveiled a Sh79bn (2025-2035) blue-economy investment plan to restore mangroves and seagrasses and protect coastal livelihoods. Tech & Finance: A US SEC filing would let certain tokenized securities trade via a regulated DTC pilot, signaling more blockchain-linked plumbing for equities. Local Economy: Panvel Municipal Corporation in India stepped up demolition of illegal roadside encroachments in Kalamboli to clear public space and improve traffic flow.

AI & Cloud Expansion: Microsoft is building a billion-dollar AI business in China, supplying OpenAI models via Azure to big local tech firms like ByteDance, Ant and Tencent—raising fresh questions on regulation and IP as US rivals pull back. Markets & Tech Spending: Indian IT stocks plunged after Accenture cut FY26 guidance, dragging Sensex and Nifty lower and reviving fears that generative AI could reduce demand for traditional services. Trade & Tariffs: EU leaders backed stronger trade defences against a surge of Chinese exports while keeping “constructive dialogue” on Beijing, reflecting growing concern over supply-chain dependence. Energy & Geopolitics: The US-Iran truce is easing oil and gas costs, with Strait of Hormuz shipping resuming after months of disruption—an important signal for global energy prices. Regional Business Climate: Turkey’s competition board approved Uber’s acquisition of Getir’s delivery arm, with a promised $500m investment. Tourism & Jobs: Kenya’s travel and tourism sector injected Sh1.6tn into the economy last year and supported 1.8m jobs, underscoring its role as a growth engine. Cuba Reform Push: Cuba’s National Assembly approved a broad economic and social reform package to open the economy and modernize business rules.

Markets & Rates: US stocks slid as the Fed signaled possible further rate hikes, dragging the S&P 500, while UK shares retreated after the Bank of England held and cut its inflation outlook. Cyber Risk: The FBI says cybercrime losses hit $20.9bn in 2025, up 26%, with phishing/spoofing driving the most complaints. Energy Crunch: Russia is turning to seaborne fuel imports after Ukraine drone strikes hit refineries, underscoring how quickly supply shocks can spill into prices. Green Economy: The global “green economy” hit a record $10tn, with green revenue firms showing resilience even as some countries deprioritize climate policy. AI Geopolitics: An expert warned AI access is becoming a geopolitical system shaped by alliances and export controls, as countries race to build trusted partner networks. Cuba Reforms: Cuba’s Communist Party approved an emergency package to expand private enterprise and attract foreign investment amid power outages and US pressure. Local Business Policy: Dublin’s bin bag ban is drawing business backlash over delays, faulty compactors and rising disposal costs. Trade & Deals: Jordan and Pakistan agreed to restart their joint business council to boost trade and investment. Corporate Moves: Comcast Business is formalizing how it vets external innovators via its innovation lab model.

US-Iran Peace Deal: Trump signed a tentative accord that reopens the Strait of Hormuz and links sanctions relief to Iran’s reconstruction plan, sending oil lower and raising hopes for cheaper energy—while markets still watch for a final deal. Central Banks & Markets: The Fed held rates but signaled a split outlook, with more officials expecting hikes; US stocks slid on hawkish signals, while Asia traded cautiously and Japan hit fresh highs on chip strength. Energy Security: The IEA warned Southeast Asia’s heavy Strait dependence could triple its energy import burden by 2035, even as some countries accelerate rooftop solar. Corporate & Tax Policy: Australia’s Labor backpedaled parts of its capital gains tax overhaul with new carve-outs for small businesses and startups after backlash; California lawmakers also kept a corporate tax push alive. Business Costs & Local Impact: Small firms again face pressure from energy bills and supplier costs; in Phillipsburg, NJ, a bridge closure is hurting sales, while Troy, Michigan, businesses complain about late construction notices. Tech & Finance: Samsung plans an AI-led turnaround for consumer devices; Alaan launched an AI-native business bank account for payments and invoice automation. SME Support & Compliance: BBB urged businesses to build a digital defense plan; New Zealand kiwifruit growers celebrated a record export crop as returns come into focus.

Trade & Banking: Malaysia’s Agrobank says it’s pushing trade facilitation and payment settlement links with Uzbekistan and the wider CIS by year-end, aiming to boost agricultural and commodity flows. Food Policy: The Philippines’ farmers’ group FFF calls the government’s safeguard-duty decision on rice imports “inordinate,” saying delays are leaving producers exposed to cheap imports. Markets: The Philippine Stock Exchange slid 2.1% as investors took profits ahead of the BSP rate decision; Wall Street also stayed choppy with chip stocks rebounding ahead of the Fed. Corporate & Fraud Controls: Ghana’s CID and the Registrar of Companies plan tighter cooperation against corporate fraud, including document forgery and identity theft. Business Rescue: South Africa’s Post Office is set to exit business rescue after years of losses and branch closures, with a new board taking over. Geopolitics & Economy: Cuba’s Communist Party convened an unscheduled session to ratify economic reforms as the island battles shortages under U.S. pressure. AI & Data: RAEK unveiled a push to build a “data ownership layer” for the AI economy, betting first-party data will be the real fuel for AI value.